ACC Conference Preview, Part I - 2024 Season
The ACC will fight to maintain a position of strength in 2024 as the SEC and B1G emerge as the big two. Can Miami, FSU, or someone else make a run?
Welcome to our 2024 Conference Previews! In our THIRD YEAR as a college football brand, we’ve expanded our coverage to include the articles and a newsletter! You can also find all of our previews and analysis on Youtube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Consider subscribing to all of our channels for free in-depth college football content all season long!
Other 2024 previews: B1G Part I | B1G Part II | SEC Part I | SEC Part II |Big XII Part I | Big XII Part II
Conference Overview
The ACC is at a crossroads as the 2024 season begins. On one hand, new additions in Cal, SMU, and Stanford bring a unique feel and at least one legit contender (SMU) to the newly nicknamed “All Coast Conference”. One the other hand, Florida State and Clemson are suing to get out of their grant of rights, Miami is still trying to win their first conference crown, and there is a general feeling that they are falling further behind the B1G and SEC in national relevance. Whether or not you subscribe to that notion is your own prerogative. As Trey is fond of saying, “All college football is good college football.” We emphatically raise a glass to that, and are very excited for the ACC season. Let’s dive in.
Teams listed in alphabetical order. Video previews will be in reverse power rankings.
Over/Under odds presented to show the public sentiment, not reflect our own projection.
Boston College
2023 in Review - 7-6 (3-5) Boston College was thiiiis close to pulling off a tremendous upset over Florida State in week three. Despite leading the entire game, they fell 31-29. It was one of three one-score losses that the Eagles suffered last year. It wasn’t all heartbreak, though. New QB Thomas Castellanos set the school’s quarterback rushing record with over 1,100 yards and 13 scores en route to a bowl game. Then, after beating SMU in the Fenway Bowl, Head Coach Jeff Hafley shockingly left to take a coordinator job with the Green Bay Packers. Native son Bill O’Brien was hired away from Ohio State, setting the stage for what could be a fun season for the BC faithful.
Notable Additions - There were only 10 transfers into Chestnut Hill, but there are a couple of really fun pieces on the offensive side. RB Treshaun Ward (KState and FSU) left the Little Apple after just one season, and now figures to split carries with returner Kye Robichaux. WR Jayden McGowan (Vandy) and Jerand Bradley (Texas Tech) add to a veteran stable of weapons for the offense as well. Defensively, the defensive back duo from Ohio State in Ryan Turner and Cameron Martinez should earn significant playing time.
Notable Losses - 17 players left via the portal, but the one I was most intrigued about last year, EDGE Shitta Sillah, left for Purdue.
Key Storyline - Be dynamic. The Eagles have the pieces in place for a pretty fun offense this next season. Along with the physicality of Bradley, veteran receiver Lewis Bond provides O’Brien and Castellanos with great options. Defensively, the Eagles need to get pressure on the QB and upgrade their coverage. New pieces in the secondary should help with the former, but Boston College needs to find better sack numbers this year.
2024 Critical Stretch - Virginia through Syracuse. BC has a tricky non conference schedule. Aside from opening against Florida State, the Eagles play Duquesne, at Missouri, vs Michigan State, and vs Western Kentucky. While Mizzou is almost certainly a loss, you could talk yourself into splitting the four games evenly at 2-2. That would set up a stretch where the Eagles likely have to nab three of the four against UVA, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Syracuse to go bowling. Not that beating SMU or UNC is impossible (they beat the Ponies last year, after all), but it’s an uphill climb.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 4.5 (O -148) One can certainly make the case for Boston College to reach five wins. While they would prefer Pitt to be a game where they clinch bowl eligibility, I think it’s more likely that over bettors are invested for a slightly less admirable achievement.
California
2023 in Review - 6-7 (4-5 in PAC 12) If you want a topsy-turvy schedule, just look at Cal’s 2023 results. After starting 2-2 (and coming one drive shy of beating Auburn at home), the Golden Bears squeaked out a victory over Arizona State…but then got bludgeoned by three of their next four opponents. Thankfully, Justin Wilcox’s crew rallied to win their final three games to make a bowl game. The team was propelled by an improved offense led by QB Fernando Mendoza and standout RB Jaydn Ott. The defense, Wilcox’s calling card, took a massive step backwards, allowing over 32 points per game. Aberration or trend? We’ll find out this year as Cal joins the ACC.
Notable Additions - Cal is sneaky talented on offense. Aside from Mendoza and Ott, the Bears added a pair of playmaking WRs in Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame) and Mikey Matthews (Utah). QB Chandler Rogers set the AAC on fire last year at North Texas, but surprisingly left for the West Coast. They added Kadarius Calloway (RB, ODU) to beef up their backfield as well. Defensively, look for significant contributions from standout CB Marcus Harris (Idaho) and talented safety Ryan Yaites (LSU). The Golden Bears finished 131st in the country last year in pass defense, so improvement is needed immediately.
Notable Losses - Sam Jackson V, who transitioned to WR last year, is now at Auburn. Fearsome linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr transferred to help TCU rebuild their defense. WR Marquez Dortch is now a Troy Trojan after committing in late May.
Key Storyline - ACC Darlings? Cal has the air raid offense to succeed in their new league, and a running back to take advantage of all the extra space. If the secondary can merely be competent under Peter Sirmon, Cal might be one of those surprising teams come late November. There is enough talent on the defensive side to return to Wilcox’s normally stingy defense, but can they execute?
2024 Critical Stretch - Florida State through NC State. This may be as daunting a four game stretch as you’ll find in the ACC. Miami and NC State come out to Berkeley, while Cal travels to Florida State and Pitt. If Cal can ensure they don’t get swept during that stretch, I think we’re talking about a bowl game. Find a way to pull off an upset in that group, and suddenly 7-8 wins is firmly in play.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 6.5 (O +124) Vegas doesn’t miss with the lines very often, and they didn’t start here. Auburn and San Diego State are tough non conference draws, but the Aztecs are at home and under new management from Sean Lewis. If Cal can get on a roll down the back half of their schedule like they did last year, the over can cash.
Clemson
2023 in Review - 9-4 (4-4) From the outside looking in, you would have thought that Clemson, South Carolina was burning to the ground when they lost 28-7 on the road at Duke. Then again, it wasn’t great after they lost 31-24 to Florida State at home either. Oh, and that two game skid after their bye when they lost to Miami and NC State by single scores wasn’t great either. For the first time, Dabo Swinney showed real cracks in the foundation. His insistence on not taking transfers from the portal appears to be holding Clemson back, but is it actually? While it might have been the first year since 2010 that the Tigers didn’t win at least 10 games in a season, Cade Klubnik appeared to settle in. The Tigers found their Will Shipley replacement, and high school recruiting continues to roll. 2024 will be a big litmus test for if Swinney still is an elite coach or not.
Notable Additions - No, Dabo didn’t dip into the transfer portal, but they did bring in a number of talented high school athletes once again. Chief amongst them is five-star linebacker Sammy Brown. Brown was the top overall backer in the class, and projects as a fixture on their defense as he develops. The receiving corps hasn’t had real weapons in years, but that’s about to change. Talented youngsters TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco join an offense that’s looking for the next evolution under second year OC Garrett Riley.
Notable Losses - The secondary will need some new names to step up after Nate Wiggins was drafted and Austin native Andrew Mukuba left for the 40 acres. RB Will Shipley is gone, as is defensive captain Jeremiah Trotter Jr. CB Toriano Pride Jr. left to continue building Missouri into an SEC dark horse.
Key Storyline - Does Dabo still have it? There are no more divisions in the ACC. Clemson’s path to a conference championship and a playoff berth will change with each season. Despite the success of teams like Florida State, who have built through the portal, Swinney refuses to use that avenue. If Klubnik and his new stable of receivers can progress to a new gear, the defense is full of standouts. No one would be questioning Dabo if they can put it all together and reclaim an ACC crown that slipped from their heads in 2023.
2024 Critical Stretch - UGA through FSU. A rare five game stretch in our publication, but it’s critical nonetheless. Clemson must take on Georgia to kick off the season before playing App State, NC State, and Florida State. Five weeks in, we’re going to figure out exactly who Clemson is in this new era of college football. Make no mistake, there will be no middle ground. Dabo will either be a genius, or perhaps someone approaching the level of overstaying their welcome.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 9.5 (O +138) I like Clemson to hit their over here. While I think they drop to Georgia and Florida State, both away from Death Valley, I like the Tigers to go 10-2 and threaten a playoff berth. With just one conference loss, they should make it to Charlotte, especially if they beat NC State. But without knowing what Miami, North Carolina, or dare I say SMU is up to, it’s difficult to project that outcome in a vacuum. Let’s go with 10-2 for now and see where we land on our 2024 Projections episode.
Duke
2023 in Review - 8-5 (4-4) Oh what could have been for Mike Elko’s Blue Devils in 2023. After starting 4-0, including an emphatic home win over Clemson, Duke fell just a touchdown shy of upsetting Notre Dame. Even worse, they essentially lost Riley Leonard for the rest of the season. The Blue Devils rallied to win eight games, including a bowl win over Troy, but Leonard was the straw that stirred the tall blue drink. Just as there was real momentum building, Elko returned to Texas A&M, where he led some of the best defenses in the country, and Riley Leonard transferred to Notre Dame. Elko is out, Manny Diaz is in, and while the prospects may not be quite as rosy as fans were hoping for, Duke should still field a competitive team this season.
Notable Additions - Duke has their QB in Texas transfer Maalik Murphy. Murphy is a physical freak with one of the biggest arms in the country. He sat behind the likes of Quinn Ewers, and realistically, Arch Manning. They got nice additions from the G5 rankings as well with DL Kendy Charles (Liberty) and WR Javon Harvey (Old Dominion). Harvey was one of the best playmakers at the G5 level and had plenty of offers once he hit the portal.
Notable Losses - The losses aren’t going to be easy to overcome. Riley Leonard stole the headlines, but rising star RB Jordan Waters left for NC State as well. EDGE RJ Oben also left for Notre Dame, while cover corner Brandon Joseph joined the Oregon Ducks. Aeneas Peebles’ absence on the defensive line will also be felt (Va Tech).
Key Storyline - Can Duke make a bowl game for the third straight year? Diaz, Murphy, and company have their work cut out for this as the ACC expands. They draw SMU as their first expansion opponent, which is unfortunate considering the rise of Rhett Lashlee’s program as opposed to Cal and Stanford. Duke’s scoring defense ranked 16th last season. If they can stay somewhat in that ballpark, even without Mike Elko, Duke will be a challenge to face each week, and a bowl game seems likely.
2024 Critical Stretch - North Carolina through SMU. Duke really has to start 4-0 over less talented teams if they want to approach success in 2024. Their conference schedule is brutal, plain and simple. We’ve highlighted UNC, at Georgia Tech, at FSU, and home against SMU as critical because their NEXT two games are at Miami and at NC State. Duke really needs to find a way to go 2-2 in their critical stretch to ensure a bowl game and give themselves a shot at more.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 5.5 (O +102) Duke lost a lot, including their defensive wizard of a head coach, but I still like their chances to reach the postseason. They’ll have to learn on the fly with new pieces everywhere, but I’ll roll the dice and say Manny Diaz is playing for a winning record in his first season.
Florida State
2023 in Review - 13-1 (8-0). I will never forgive the 2023 CFP Committee for how they cheated FSU out of a playoff. Despite going 13-0, including an ACC Title over Louisville, Florida State was left out of the Playoff. It was all because standout QB Jordan Travis was the victim of a freak injury in their 11th game against Northern Alabama. The fallout? A historic bludgeoning against Georgia, another playoff snub, in the Orange Bowl. The 2023 Noles and Head Coach Mike Norvell deserved a far better outcome for such a wonderful season. But despite all of that, Norvell and his 2024 roster are more determined than ever to succeed. The Noles mined the transfer portal, signed a top 15 recruiting class, and put in, “the best eight-week winter program that we’ve ever had,” according to Norvell. Noles’ Coin (Mitch’s long time FSU bit for new followers) could see a tremendous bounce back once again.
Notable Additions - Mike Norvell knew he was losing quite a bit from his roster. As a result, he lost no time in securing multiple top end portalers like QB DJ Uiagalelei (Ore St), EDGE Marvin Jones Jr (UGA), WR Jalen Brown (LSU) and a bus load of transfers from Alabama. The defense is excited to welcome LB Shawn Murphy and CB Earl Little II from Tuscaloosa, while the offense gets RB Roydell Williams, OL TJ Ferguson, and WR Malik Benson. The Noles are loaded once again.
Notable Losses - Losing 10 draftees always presents a challenge on a year to year basis for the best teams. Elite EDGE Jerad Verse and WR Keon Coleman were the first two names off the board, but the loss of RB Trey Benson and multiple members of the secondary compound the challenge. CB Greedy Vance Jr split for USC, and backup QB Tate Rodemaker is now battling for the Southern Miss job (hello CFB25 Dynasty Mode).
Key Storyline - Pound the rock. FSU won’t be able to throw the ball like they did with Jordan Travis, DJ just isn’t that kind of passer. What they can do is run, and run, and run some more. The Noles RB room is stacked with guys like Lawrance Toafili, the aforementioned Williams, Jaylin Lucas, and true freshman Kam Davis. With three starters back on the offensive line and a defense that should make opponents miserable, FSU might just run right through teams en route to the ACC title game.
2024 Critical Stretch - Clemson through UNC. FSU’s schedule is a difficult one, one that doesn’t give many breaks on a week to week basis. Georgia Tech in Dublin, Memphis at home, and on the road at SMU all come in the first half of the season. Then you get to the stretch run of Clemson, at Duke, at Miami, and UNC. ALL OF THAT is before games at Notre Dame and versus Florida. Depending on who you lose to, a 10-2 record should still put the Noles in Charlotte.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 9.5 (O -105) I’ll take the over. Clemson comes to Tallahassee with an offense we hope is improved, but isn’t proven. Miami and Notre Dame could be spots where the Noles slip up, but Notre Dame is still an independent. We highlighted that game in South Bend as one of our games of the year, and it certainly could have huge playoff implications. Finishing the schedule with a win over Florida and heading north to play for a conference title and a playoff berth at 10-2? Yeah, I think the Noles would take that.
Georgia Tech
2023 in Review - 7-6 (5-3) Mitch made a bold proclamation about Georgia Tech last season on July 11th. Despite a brutal schedule, a host of newcomers, and no clear favorite at QB, Mitch and Garrett took the Yellow Jackets to make a bowl game. The rest is history. From the loss to Bowling Green (at home…), to the improbable comeback against Miami and everything along the way, it was an incredibly crazy ride. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes willed the offense forward, tallying over 31 points per game. The defense really struggled, but it was always meant to be a work in progress. Brent Key won a lot of fans last year. It’s time to build on that going forward.
Notable Additions - Linebacker was such a struggle for the Ramblin’ Wreck last year after injuries and missed assignments plagued the unit. EJ Lightsey (UGA) and Jackson Hamilton (Louisville) enter as prime candidates to help new Defensive Coordinator Tyler Santucci right the ship. The secondary should be better with CB Warren Burrell (Tennessee) joining Ahmari Harvey as a very solid tandem. Jayden Davis (Cincy) and Zachary Tobe (Illinois) will offer possible upgrades at safety. The offensive player to watch is TE Jackson Hawes (Yale), who absolutely lit up the spring game and projects as a reliable option for QB Haynes King.
Notable Losses - There were a number of exits from the Yellow Jacket program that will make 2024 more difficult. While many of them opted for smaller programs, losing EDGE Kyle Kennard (South Carolina), CB Kenan Johnson (Utah), and CB KJ Wallace (UCLA) are all players who must be replaced if the Jackets are to build an improved defense.
Key Storyline - Can the veteran Yellow Jackets shock us again? Georgia Tech has a brutal schedule (more on that in a moment), but the offense and defense both return a number of starters. Haynes King was productive, even if he did throw the ball to the wrong jersey 16 times last season. WRs Malik Rutherford and Eric Singleton Jr are back out wide, and the offensive line returns three starters. Transfers like Hawes help prevent the defense from focusing on any one playmaker. Defensively, Tech must be better at getting to the passer. With Kevin Harris and a deep linebacking room leading the charge, there is certainly reason to be excited in Atlanta.
2024 Critical Stretch - Louisville through Notre Dame. This is as frightening a schedule as you’ll see in the ACC. Just take a look for yourself. The Yellow Jackets have to ensure that their closing stretch against Virginia Tech, Miami, NC State, and Georgia means something. They HAVE to make their hay early. In an ideal world, Tech is 3-1 heading into the road contest against Louisville. In an ideal world. It’s a tall order, but Key and company did it last year. Can they run it back?
Over/Under Projection - O/U 5.5 (O +136) Unfortunately, we aren’t projecting the Ramblin’ Wreck to enjoy the run to the postseason that they did last year. Despite an increase in talent, the schedule is simply stacked too tall against them. Honestly, going 5-7 against that slate would get a golf clap from us.
Louisville
2023 in Review - 10-4 (7-2) Jeff Brohm made a big splash in year one, winning ten games and taking the Cardinals to the ACC Championship game. Brohm is known for his electric offenses, and Louisville fell right in line last season, finishing inside the top 40 in most major metrics. Despite the strange loss to Pitt and a three game losing streak to end the year, Brohm proved he can win and recruit at The ‘Ville just fine.
Notable Additions - The addition of RB Peny Boone from Toledo would have helped a good deal, but after he re-entered the portal for UCF this offseason, the load will fall to Donald Chaney Jr (Miami) and last year’s backup, Maurice Turner. QB Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) hopes for a fully healthy season as the starter, while WR Caullin Lacy (USA) is a super star looking for the next level of competition. Pete Nygra (NIU) is tasked with replacing the best lineman in the ACC, Bryan Hudson. Defensively, the safety room gets a boost with Daeh McCullough (OU) and Tamarion McDonald coming to town.
Notable Losses - The Cardinals lost a ton of offensive production from their 10-win ballclub, waving goodbye to their starting QB, top two RBs, most of their best receivers and three starters along the offensive line. Most notably, losing Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, who accounted for 24 touchdowns last year, will provide one of the biggest challenges. Thankfully for the Cards, most contributors on defense return. EDGE Tyler Baron did leave for Miami.
Key Storyline - The defense is ready, is the offense? The defensive line is stacked this year, featuring Ashton Gillotte (11 sacks, 14.5 TFLs) and Mason Reiger. TJ Quinn and Benjamin Perry both return at the linebacker position, with Quinn boasting a team high 92 tackles in 2023. The Cards like what they have on defense, if the offense can pick up the slack early, Louisville could be challenging for a 10-win season once again.
2024 Critical Stretch - Notre Dame through Miami. Louisville’s schedule is fairly forgiving this year, especially for a team breaking in a new roster of offensive players. Yes, Clemson and Kentucky are on the tail end of the schedule, but we look at the road tilt against Notre Dame, versus SMU, at UVA, and home against Miami as the critical games. Louisville getting SMU and Miami at home certainly works in the Cards’ favor
Over/Under Projection - O/U 8.5 (O -110) Tyler Shough’s health cannot be overstated. Shough showed real potential at Oregon and Texas Tech, but can he stay on the field? If he does, the passing game might even improve from their 2023 totals. The Cards going 9-3 or better if the offense catches fire wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest.
Miami
2023 in Review - 7-6 (3-5) There is no way to get around the utter disappointment that Miami has experienced under Mario Cristobal in his first two years. After going 5-7 in year one, the Canes were seconds away from a 5-0 start to 2023 when sheer incompetence struck. The Hurricanes continued to run the ball against Georgia Tech, despite the ability to take a knee and run out the clock. The rest will live in CFB infamy forever. Miami fumbled on a Donald Chaney dive and the Yellow Jackets scored four plays later. The Canes then lost five of their remaining eight games. Still, Mario and company have continued to recruit well. The sentiment seems to be that the Hurricanes will be a real contender this year for an ACC crown and a playoff spot, both things they’ve never done.
Notable Additions - Miami picked up some of the most notable players in the portal this offseason. QB Cam Ward (Wazzu) might have been the top gunslinger available. RB Damien Martinez (Ore St) is a gamebreaker who will lead the backfield, while Sam Brown (Houston) is another talented receiver to pair with Xavier Restrepo and Isaiah Horton. C Zach Carpenter brings a wealth of starting experience to the offensive line after spending time at Michigan and Indiana. The defensive line received two new presumed starters in CJ Clark (UNC) and Marley Cook (MTSU), and Washington transfer Mishael Powell will start at nickel back.
Notable Losses - Kam Kinchens and outstanding center Matt Lee headline the few Hurricanes that were drafted last season. WR Colby Young (UGA) left for the SEC, while talented TE Jaleel Skinner is now at Louisville. Former QB Tyler Van Dyke is now a Badger after a tremendously disappointing career in Coral Gables, and linebacker Corey Flagg is now at Mizzou.
Key Storyline - Time to walk through that door. There are no more excuses, simply put. Miami has the talent and the schedule to not only make it to the ACC title game, but win it and secure a CFP berth. To do so, Miami must cut down on the turnovers (-4 in 2023) and expect the same level of sharpness and discipline from their coaches as they do their players. Better, more consistent play from QB Cam Ward will go a long way to allowing the Hurricanes to climb the mountain and claim their first ACC title.
2024 Critical Stretch - Virginia Tech through Florida State. The season opener at Florida will set the tone for the rest of the season. While a loss wouldn’t eliminate Miami from anything other than the public’s favor, it’s important to get the ball rolling early. South Florida precedes the Canes’ critical stretch against the Hokies, road trips to Cal and Louisville, and a home game against Florida State. Avoiding Clemson, North Carolina, and SMU is huge, but the Canes can’t afford more than one loss during their key stretch.
Over/Under Projection - O/U 9.5 (O +138) It’s now or never for Miami. FSU is replacing Jordan Travis, Florida is floundering, and the Sunshine state might be up for grabs. This ACC calendar is about as easy as it will get. Miami MUST go at least 10-2 this year, which I think they will. A loss to FSU, however, could be detrimental to their championship hopes.
Part II of our ACC Preview comes out later this week!