New Powers Make Their Title Case: 2026 Mountain West Preview Pt. 1
There might not be a conference in modern history that faced more upheaval that what the Mountain West has experienced this offseason.
Five member institutions bolted for the new Pac 12 and almost every other school with any bargaining power was courted to do the same, putting the conference at a crossroads. But rather than giving in and chalking up their demise to the harsh realities of college football in 2026, the league got creative and might have given us one of the most entertaining products from top to bottom in the sport.
With a massive power vacuum created by the departure of Boise State, it’s truly anyone’s crown to claim But several programs have a leg up in 2026.
Here’s a look at the first five teams, alphabetically, in the league:
Find our other conference previews here: PAC-12 Preview | CUSA Preview | American Preview Pt. 1 | American Preview Pt. 2 | Sun Belt East Preview | Sun Belt West Preview | MAC Preview Pt. 1 | MAC Preview Pt. 2
Air Force Falcons
2025 In Review
There were long stretches where positivity was hard to find last year in Colorado Springs. The Falcons limped to a 1-5 start, largely due to a defense that surrendered 40 points per game during the first half of the season. Things did get a bit better in the back half - a 3-3 close that included wins over regional rivals Colorado State and Wyoming - but an overall 4-8 record that included losses in both Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy games did not leave any supporters of the Flyboys thrilled.
Key Storylines
Liam Szarka returns after a superb season running the point from the quarterback position in the flexbone. A true dual threat, Szarka’s 2025 campaign saw him become the first Falcon signal-caller to amass over 2000 all-purpose yards since Karson Roberts in 2015. He also became the first player in MWC history (and first nationally since Lamar Jackson in 2015) to log three straight games with 200 yards passing and 100 rushing. He missed the last two games of the season with a broken forearm, but he should be good to go for the opener.
The supporting cast on offense will be a work in progress, but fullback Owen Allen, who finished second on the team in rushing behind Szarka last season, returns for his senior season. But outside of him, the only other skill players that managed over 100 yards from scrimmage last season are WR Jonah Dawson and FB/QB Kemper Hodges. Both missed time with injuries last year - they combined to play in just 15 games - but will be needed to help rebuild the core.
Steve Russ is returning to his former role as DC, and he’ll be tasked with cleaning up a mess. The unit he inherits allowed a staggering 7.2 yards per play and 34.9 points per game in conference play last year. The foundation for improvement will come from LBs Blake Fletcher, who led the team in tackles last season, and Isaac Hubert, who logged five sacks and 11.5 TFLs. DBs Roger Jones and Max Mustell, who combined for five INT last season, also return. Russ has worked his magic at the Academy before, orchestrating a turnaround and fielding one of the best units in the conference, but he will have his work cut out for him.
Schedule at a Glance
After opening with Duquesne, the Falcons will welcome North Dakota State to the league in Week 2. They’ll play their traditional service academy rivalry matchups, hosting Navy and traveling to Army, and also host UConn on Halloween to round out the non-conference slate. They’ll save their toughest road test of the season for last as they travel to New Mexico for the regular season finale.
One Prediction for 2026
Somehow, some way, Szarka will lead his team to a bowl game in spite of a somewhat improved, but still lacking, defense.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
2025 In Review
After two straight seasons of being agonizingly close to a return to Bowl Season, Timmy Chang’s bunch finally broke through in a big way. The Rainbow Warriors rode a high-flying offense and a surprisingly-stingy defense to eight regular season wins and a triumph over Cal in the Hawaii Bowl to cap Chang’s official arrival as contenders in the league.
Key Storylines
Micah Alejado is primed for another step forward after bursting onto the scene as a RS Freshman last season. Alejado battled injuries - including one to his ankle in the bowl game that kept him out of spring ball - last season, but should be good to go for the opener. Even while playing banged up, Alejado threw for over 3100 yards and led the conference in passing TDs with 24. His ceiling is certainly even higher, and if he can stay healthy he will be a household name around college football by the end of the season. He’ll also have a ready-to-go WR1 in Pofele Ashlock, who Chang was able to keep out of the portal after a season where he caught 76 passes for 827 yards and eight TDs.
The defense went through a rebuild, after 20 of the 32 players that saw 200 or more snaps last season left the program. They’ll turn to a variety of portal pickups including P4 depth pieces like DE Adam Tomczyk (West Virginia) and CB Caleb Brown (Virginia Tech), but the more intriguing adds, at least from a production standpoint, come from the FCS level. Former Portland State EDGE Spencer Elliott brings 34 games of experience and logged 6.5 sacks last season, and S Joenel Figueroa who picked off two passes and broke up three more last year at West Georgia.
Will this be the year we see the ceiling of the program? It’s been almost 20 years since June Jones did the unthinkable - leading Colt Brennen and the Rainbow Warriors to an undefeated regular season and appearance in the Sugar Bowl. It’s easy to see the similarities between the 2007 squad and this one - a dynamic QB paired with a coach who legitimately loves the school and *just* enough defense - and get excited. On January 22, Bill Connelly of ESPN included Hawaii in his first look at the 2026 CFP field, showing that the buy-in was not just from those on the islands. Can Chang complete the ultimate Disney storyline and take his alma mater from an afterthought to a spot in the bracket competing for the sport’s highest prize?
Schedule at a Glance
The Rainbow Warriors open the year with a tilt at Stanford during Week Zero, looking to go back-to-back against the Cardinal. They’ll also host New Mexico State and Sacramento State and travel to Arizona State in the non-conference portion of their schedule. The league schedule sets up nicely with both UNLV and New Mexico at home and road trips to Wyoming, UTEP, NIU, and Nevada that don’t exactly instill a lot of fear.
One Prediction for 2026
The next step is here, but maybe not to the extent of making the playoff. The schedule and talent line up so nicely for Hawaii that they will legitimately push for ten wins and an appearance in the conference championship game.
Nevada Wolf Pack
2025 In Review
It was another tough year in Reno as the Wolf Pack suffered their fourth consecutive losing season. The 1-8 start to the season was certainly bleak, but the year did end on a high note. Jeff Choate’s squad rallied to win two of their last three, including a 55-10 drubbing of San Jose State. The two conference wins matched the total of the previous three seasons, so perhaps there is hope for a brighter future.
Key Storylines
Can an open competition at QB fix a historically bad passing attack? Incumbent starter Carter Jones showed flashes as a true freshman, but his turnover problems (eight INT in ten games) were a symptom of a much larger issue. In three of the last four seasons, Nevada QBs have thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, including a 10:17 TD:INT ratio last year. Luke Duncan was brought in from UCLA to compete with Jones and fellow returnee AJ Bianco, and the battle is lasting into summer and fall camp.
The offense as a whole is going through an overhaul after Choate did more than just move some pieces around on the coaching staff. Only one of six offensive assistants is still employed in the same role as last year, and new OC Brett Bartolone is bringing a renewed focus on improving the passing game. The receiving corps took a big hit losing the top four pass catchers from 2025, and the Pack will turn to four FCS transfers to try and rebuild. Defensively, the picture is a bit brighter with all-MWC DE Dylan LaBarbera returning to provide a nice piece to build around.
Improvement…or else? Nevada is certainly a tough place to consistently win, but it’s been proven to be possible in the not so distant past. Choate has referred to his third season as a “hump year” and reportedly turned down offers for multiple P4 and NFL assistant opportunities to see the rebuild through, but time is running out to provide results on the field. The situation certainly wasn’t great when Choate arrived in Reno, but what happens if he doesn’t get over the “hump” this year?
Schedule at a Glance
After a difficult opener against Western Kentucky, the opportunity for a decent start is certainly there with a run of Montana State, at Middle Tennessee, Air Force, and at UTEP after a bye. After the trip to El Paso, though, it gets exceptionally more difficult with road trips to NDSU, UCLA, and UNLV and home dates with New Mexico and Hawaii.
One Prediction for 2026
The offense finds success amid a new identity, but the Pack fall just short of their goal of returning to Bowl Season.
New Mexico Lobos
2025 In Review
Jason Eck’s debut in Albuquerque could not have gone much better. After playing Michigan close in the Big House, the Lobos won their next three contests, including a stunning 35-10 drubbing of UCLA at the Rose Bowl. New Mexico suffered back-to-back tough losses on the road to open October, but Eck rallied the troops and won the final six regular season games, coming up just short of a shot at the conference championship on a tiebreaker.
Key Storylines
Jack Layne’s recovery from offseason surgery to fix a torn flexor tendon in his elbow suffered during pregame warm-ups before the UCLA game is the biggest storyline heading into fall camp. Eck has stated that Layne has remained locked to the mental reps despite missing on-field activities during spring ball, and should be good to go for Week One. Oregon transfer Luke Moga and redshirt freshman Toa Fa’avae split first team reps in Layne’s absence this spring, but neither did enough to warrant a full competition in the fall meaning the drop off could be drastic if Layne is not cleared to play.
Around Layne, the offense will turn to a familiar face in Scottre Humphrey to lead the RB corps after he ran for 4.5 ypc and 5 TDs on 77 carries as a junior. Humphrey followed Eck from Montana State where he rushed for almost 1400 yards and 16 TDs as a sophomore. He and Memphis transfer Cameron Matthews emerging as a legitimate one-two punch would do wonders for the offense as they look to improve on the rather pedestrian 152 ypg on the ground they mustered last season. Defensively, MWC co-DPOY Jaxton Eck returns for a final season playing for his father and the Lobos return the most overall production in the league on that side of the ball, but they will need to find a new way to generate pass rush after the departures of Keyshawn James-Newby and Brett Karhu.
Can New Mexico play the role of a favorite? Last season, Eck enjoyed the role of underdog, sneaking up on opponents with justifiably low expectations of the program after they went a decade between bowl appearances. Now, however, New Mexico enters the season as the odds-on favorite to win a wide open, new look Mountain West - quite the role reversal. Eck has done this before, transforming Idaho from an afterthought to a regular FCS playoff participant under his watch, but how will managing the meteoric rise, and the loud voices that accompany it, affect play on the field this fall?
Schedule at a Glance
Back-to-back home games to open the season are followed by road trips to Oklahoma and New Mexico State for the Rio Grande Rivalry. The Lobos will host New Mexico State and UNLV in league play, and outside of Hawaii, the road draw should be manageable.
One Prediction for 2026
Eck leads the Lobos to the MWC Championship Game, backing up last year’s results and cementing himself as one of the hottest commodities on the coaching carousel.
North Dakota State Bison
2025 In Review
After winning their 10th national title in 14 seasons in 2024, the Bison seemed poised for yet another in their final run through the FCS. They were #1 in the polls wire-to-wire in the regular season, and did not play a game decided by fewer than 17 points until the calendar turned to November. In the second round of the playoffs, however, Illinois State rallied from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to stun the juggernaut with a game-winning two-point conversion with a minute left. Now, NDSU turns their attention to trying to answer a question asked for over a decade: can they compete in the FBS?
Key Storylines
The offense will look different from a personnel standpoint after QB Cole Payton and 1000-yard receiver Bryce Lance headline the list of departures. Senior Nathan Hayes, who appeared in ten games last season and showed strong potential as a runner and passer, will take over as the full-time starter under center, and he’ll have experienced, productive targets in WR Jackson Williams and TE Reis Kessel. Additionally, he’ll be protected by a stalwart offensive line that has become synonymous with Bison football over the period of their FCS dominance, making the offense as a whole one of the most promising in the conference.
How will the defense adjust to the step up in competition? NDSU has relied on a dominant defense over the course of their dynasty, but DC Grant Olsen will be tasked with finding a way to maintain production against objectively more talented offenses. He’ll rely on veterans like Keenen Wilson - a force in the middle of the defensive line who logged four sacks and eight TFLs last season - and tackle-leader Donoval Woolen to make that transition a bit smoother. Havoc plays were easy to come by in the FCS, but Olsen and his staff might have to get creative to generate the kind of pressure and turnovers they’re accustomed to.
Will the hypothetical become reality? As has been hinted at in almost every paragraph about the Bison so far, the transition from FCS power to FBS conference title contender is a difficult, but not impossible, one as recent transitions from James Madison, Jacksonville State, and for at least one year, Sam Houston, have proven. The Bison are 5-2 against FBS opponents since 2011, including wins over P4 programs Minnesota, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Iowa and close, one possession losses to Arizona and Colorado. These results have prompted many questions about how the Bison would fare against the week-in-week-out grind of an FBS schedule, and now we will begin to get our answer.
Schedule at a Glance
We’ll be treated to an early look at the FBS version of the Bison when they welcome Jacksonville State to the Fargo Dome Week Zero. The league did them no favors with road trips slated for UNLV, New Mexico, and Hawaii, but the home slate should offer the fans in Fargo plenty of opportunities to see some wins.
One Prediction for 2026
While they will come up a bit short of winning the conference, due in large part to the difficult road schedule, the Bison will comfortably make a bowl game and set themselves up for a shot at a new type of dynasty in the coming years.