Previewing the AAC: The Contenders and Storylines to Follow in 2024
The competition in the AAC is about to be really fun if you know what to watch for...
The Contenders
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers rolled their way to an impressive 10-3 season in 2023. Senior QB Seth Henigan threw for nearly 3,900 yards and 32 touchdowns last year. RB Mario Anderson transfers in from South Carolina, adding an incredible rushing threat to the American conference. Now pair the fact that the two top receiving options are returning (Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee) with three returning starters along the line, and you can see why the Tigers are going to be a problem for AAC defenses.
The concern for Memphis fans will be on the defensive side of the ball. While their offense ranked 6th in total scoring, their defense finished 92nd in scoring prevention. Even worse, the Tigers secondary gave up 268 yards passing (121st) per game. Bill Connolly’s AAC preview has Memphis graded as one of the most extreme “half teams” in the entire country (enjoying an explosive offense, while suffering from a terrible defense). With the only returning starter being safety Greg Rubin, there’s a clean slate for that unit to improve. Chandler Martin, the team’s leading tackler, will help lead a front seven that will look to boost their run defense and efficiency at disrupting the QB.
If Memphis can weather a tough schedule, there is no doubt that they would be the favorite to secure the G5 auto bid into the playoff. The Tigers have tough non conference games against Troy and Florida State, but at least the Trojans game is at home. In conference, all three of the toughest games, unfortunately, are on the road. Games at USF, at UTSA, and at Tulane to close all loom large. Given the right circumstances, the Bulls, Roadrunners, and Green Wave could ALL be contenders for the same playoff spot.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane is under new management in 2024 after Willie Fritz was hired as the Head Coach of Houston. Enter Jon Sumrall, formerly the head man at Troy. Tulane lost a good deal of production from the 2023 club that went to the AAC championship game, but they also did a heck of a job in the portal. The QB battle is still ongoing between Ty Thompson (Oregon) and returner Kai Horton. Horton stepped up when Pratt dealt with injuries last season. RB Mahkai Hughes is an absolute dude in the backfield, rushing for nearly 1,400 yards last season. While the receivers lost Chris Brazzell to Tennessee, the addition of the speedy Mario Williams from USC should help. Yulkeith Brown will play a much larger role for the Green Wave in the slot. The line is strong, but potentially hampered by the loss of Trey Tuggle (LT) who suffered a knee injury in the spring.
Defensively, there is more to replace. Jesus Machado and Tyler Grubbs will lead the squad from their linebacking positions. Still, the team will need to replace more than half of their tackling production from last season. Caleb Ransaw and Jack Tchienchou both followed Sumrall from Troy and will look to bolster the secondary.
Tulane faces a tough road to the CFP thanks to dates with Kansas State and Oklahoma in the first two weeks. Louisiana and South Florida are next, while Memphis looms in the final week of the season. Tulane’s offense should be explosive enough to approach 10 wins. If they can do that, or even manage to spring a monumental upset over Kansas State (who is known to struggle early in the season), Tulane would be one of the favorites for the G5 playoff berth.
UTSA Roadrunners
It is truly the end of an era in the Triangle of Toughness. The two senior citizens and foundational pieces of Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunner squad, QB Frank Harris and DB Rashad Wisdom, have finally exhausted their eligibility. They leave a legacy of determination and hope to a program that has only grown since Traylor arrived in San Antonio. If you heard our episode with JD Davis of the North Texas Eagle, you heard him rave over the recruiting and development of talent in the 210.
But 2024 is a new year, and the rest of the AAC doesn’t care what Traylor did last season. With, likely, Owen McCown taking over, the offense will trend towards a ground-and-pound style of attack behind workhorse running back Kevorian Barnes. McCown will have a talented group of receivers to throw to, though, so don’t take the aerial attack for granted. De’Corian Clark, Devin McCuin, JJ Sparkman (Texas Tech), and Oscar Cardenas are the primary options for the UTSA offense. On the other side of the ball, the key word from UTSA insiders is ‘depth’. The two-deep is stacked with solid talent that was brought to San Antonio, whether through high school or the portal. One of the most intriguing players is former 5-star CB Denver Harris, who washed out of Texas A&M and LSU for off field issues. If he can clean up his act, he’s instantly an X-factor for the Roadrunner secondary.
UTSA has a schedule that suits their aspirations of an AAC title. The only game they probably have no shot in is at Texas in week three. They draw a fascinating matchup in the I-35 Rivalry against an equally hyped Texas State squad. Their conference is schedule is somewhat backloaded, but don’t sleep on a road contest against Dean Connors and a fun Rice team October 12th. UTSA will host Temple on November 2nd, but they avoid Tulane in the regular season.
South Florida Bulls
If you don’t already know the names of Head Coach Alex Golesh and QB Byrum Brown, take out a pen and notepad - they are two of the most slept-on stories in all of college football. Golesh came from his position as the OL coach at Tennessee in 2022. He inherited a 2-10 program and went 1-11 in his first season. No one was paying attention to the Bulls…until Byrum Brown and company roared back to go 7-6, including hanging with Alabama at home in the rain. While they may be more sizzle than steak as a CFP dark horse, thanks to a brutal schedule, the Bulls are a program on the rise.
If you’ve watched/listened/read our work, you know Mitch is a gigantic fan of Byrum Brown, so much so that he selected him as QB2 in the Three Tech Pod CFB Fantasy Draft. He was one of two QBs in the country to throw for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 1,000 yards. The other QB was Heisman winner Jayden Daniels…The Bulls are stacked with returners on both sides of the ball. Nay’Quan Wright is due for another solid year on the ground, while eight of eleven starters return on defense. The offense was 32nd in the country in scoring and rushing last year, averaging nearly 32 points per game. In total, they finished 17th in offensive production. If the defense can stop anybody this year (they gave up 32 points per game last season), look out for South Florida to win eight or nine games.
Fun Storylines to Watch
What can we expect from Army and Navy this year?
Army has joined the American in a football-only capacity, while Navy looks to break through and earn a winning record for only the second time in the last seven years. Bryson Daily is healthy and ready to lead the Black Knights once again. Army averaged 208 yards on the ground last year, while the defense owned the 31st best scoring defense. Their schedule certainly has stretches of potential wins and losses on it, but I expect Army to reach a bowl game once again. Navy will need to find consistency on offense after barely scoring 17 points per game a year ago. New Navy offensive coordinator described his scheme as a hybrid Wing-T, triple-option, spread option combo. Here’s hoping it works.
Soaring expectations in Denton?
The Mean Green had the 6th best offense in the country last year. That’s the good news. The bad news? They still missed a bowl game, had one of the worst rushing defenses in CFB history, and most of their production walked out the door in the portal. Still, Chandler Morrie (TCU) injects life and talent into the QB room. Insiders expect the 3-3-5 defense to progress in year two under DC Matt Caponi. There are veteran leaders and transfers along the offensive line, and the skill positions look solid for the Mean Green. I’ve got them going 7-5 and making a bowl game in 2024.
Rice? Rice!
Dean Connors is one of the most slept on names in college football. Along with new QB EJ Warner, I expect the Rice backfield to be one of the most fun to watch in the sport. Connors totaled nearly 1,200 all-purpose yards in ‘23 and looks to take an explosive next step. The defense is one of the most veteran squads in the conference, and HC Mike Bloomgren has slowly been rebuilding Rice into a fighting machine. Why not the Owls?
Who graduates from the cellar?
Tulsa went 4-8 last year. Charlotte went 3-9. ECU went 2-10 (sigh), and Temple finished 3-9. One of these teams HAS to climb out of the basement this year. The general favorites seem to be Charlotte, who beefed up nicely through the portal (howdy Max Brown) and ECU, whose defense is actually really good…they just need to score some points. If Jake Garcia (Miami, Missouri) or Katin Houser (Michigan State) can elevate the offense through the air attack, the Pirates could certainly make a bowl game.