In Part II of our B1G Preview, we look at the six teams that could find themselves in a position to compete at the top of the conference or ruin somebody’s season in a heart beat. As we discussed off the top of the podcast, our top storylines all revolve around the increased depth in the conference. No, Michigan State isn’t likely to make it to Indianapolis in 2025…but the direction and pieces are starting to fall into place, even for teams in the “middle” of the conference.
Welcome to our Big Ten Preview, Part II - Dark Horses and Storylines
Looking for our other previews? Find them below!
B1G Part I | AAC Part I | AAC Part II | Sun Belt East | Sun Belt West | MWC Part I | MWC Part II | MAC Part I | MAC Part II | CUSA Part I | CUSA Part II
12. Michigan State Spartans
2024 in Review
It doesn’t seem possible that just four years ago, the Spartans finished 11-2 with a Peach Bowl win over ACC Champion Pitt. What’s even crazier is that 2025 will mark the ten year anniversary of the Spartans winning the B1G Championship and going to the College Football Playoff. Those good times feel like forever ago, but there is growing optimism in East Lansing. Jonathan Smith’s first season at Michigan State had its up’s and down’s, but there were signs of life. The takeaways from the 5-7 campaign include a better finish than start to the year for QB Aiden Chiles, WR Nick Marsh emerged as a future star, and the defense showed it could be very stout. “Progress” and “growth” are buzz words within the Sparty locker room, but a few more wins could turn them into much more than that as Michigan State tries to climb back to the top of the B1G.
Key Storylines
Will the real Aiden Chiles please stand up? Chiles followed Jonathan Smith from Oregon State after the 2023 season. For many Spartans, there was confidence stemming from the fact that Chiles was hand picked by Smith to lead his offense. Aiden made Spartan Nation wait for proof that he could, in fact, run the offense competently. The first half of the season was plagued by turnovers (Mich State finished -8 in TO margin) and inefficient drives. They scored just 16 in a win over FAU, 19 in a loss to Boston College, only 7 against Ohio State, and scratched 10 across against Oregon. The second half was a little better, at least in the realm of turnovers. The 32-20 stunner over Iowa sure helped, but only scoring 14 points against Rutgers with a bowl on the line was a sour way to finish. Chiles will need to be much more accurate and decisive this season.
Sparty has one of the sneakiest pass catching trios in the conference. I mentioned Nick Marsh, who won multiple “freshman of the week” honors last season, off the top. His rookie season saw him catch 41 balls for nearly 650 yards. The Spartans brought in Omari Kelly, (Mid Tenn State) who led the Blue Raiders as their top weapon, to pair with Marsh to form a dangerous duo out wide. Add Jack Vieling to the mix at tight end, and Chiles certainly isn’t lacking for talented options.
Michigan State will go as far as the trenches take them. The offensive line was dreadful last year, while the defensive line was well above average. Sparty was very difficult to run on (32nd in run prevention)…but they couldn’t rush the ball themselves (110th). With just one returner along the offensive line, Michigan State turned to the portal for veterans. Defensively, they return a couple of key starters like DT Alex VanSumeren and snatched Edge Isaac Smith (Texas Tech) from the portal. Improvements along the offensive line and a return to form defensively could help Michigan State make a bowl game for the first time since 2021.
The Schedule at a Glance
It’s very possible that Sparty could start 3-0 against Western Michigan, Boston College, and Youngstown State. The trick, then, becomes finding three more wins. The road schedule, for example, isn’t kind to the Spartans. They travel to USC and Nebraska with a bye week in between. They then go to Indiana the week before the Michigan game, followed by a trip to Minnesota, the home finale against Penn State, the road finale against Iowa, and a neutral site game against Maryland. Good heavens.
Over/Under Projection - 5.5 wins
If…and I do mean if Michigan State starts 3-0, then they will seemingly need just one upset to go bowling. UCLA and Maryland are their peers in the midfield of the B1G, although I expect Maryland to struggle quite a bit this year. Michigan is a prime upset candidate given how hotly contested that rivalry game is, plus they get the Wolverines at home where Sparty has won 4 of the last 7. I also look at their trip to Nebraska. If the defensive line can make the Huskers one dimensional, perhaps the secondary is able to force a couple of Raiola turnovers. Officially, I’ll take the under, but watch this space.
11. Minnesota Golden Gophers
2024 in Review
It’s hard to believe that PJ Fleck has been in Minneapolis for nearly a decade, but it’s true. Minnesota heads into Fleck’s ninth year on the heels of another steady 8-5 campaign. The Gophers are 58-39 under PJ and have built a reputation for a very good defense and a gritty offense. RB Darius Taylor broke out and tallied nearly 1,000 yards on the ground and 12 total TDs, while the defense put in a top 5 effort. That success, however, landed Corey Heatherman a job at Miami, so replacing him with Danny Collins will be a focal point. The Gophers feel like they’re on the verge of breaking through into the next level of the B1G, but can a redshirt freshman QB get them there?
Key Storylines
Can Lindsey be as steady as Brosmer? Drake Lindsey (6’5, 230) inherits the reins to the Gophers’ offense after a year in waiting behind Max Brosmer. Lindsey is a former top 25 QB in the class of 2024 and has all the tools to be successful, but there will be a learning curve. It’s a good thing a QB’s best friend is a good running game. Along with Darius Taylor, the Gophers also got welcome additions to the stable from AJ Turner (Marshall, 800+ yards in ‘24) and Cam Davis (Washington). The offensive line only has two returners at LG and C, but transfers from Kentucky, Washington, and UCF help fill out a line that, on average, measures 6’5 and 318lbs.
Replacing pass catchers was a priority in the portal. The Gophers lost Daniel Jackson (863 yds) and Elijah Spencer (684 yds), a massive swatch of their receiving production last year. Minnesota hit the portal for MAC star Javon Tracy (Miami OH) and UCLA transfer Logan Loya. Tracy had over 800 yards and 7 TDs, while Loya hauled in 4 TDs of his own. Le’Meke Brockington and Cristian Driver are returners on the roster that are expected to start along with Tracy, forming a solid, but perhaps under-the-radar corps.
Cry “HAVOC” and let loose the Gophers of War. Danny Collins has a large challenge in front of him to match the production of the defense from 2024. Koi Perch, pre-season All American, will help him lead a young secondary from his safety position, but Collins is replacing his other four starters from a top 10 passing defense last season. In the middle of the defensive line, Minnesota returns two starters in Deven Eastern and Jalen Logan-Redding, while the linebackers have Maverick Baranowski and plenty of snaps around him. Collins certainly is bringing the right approach to his first season in charge of the defense. He named his style of defense “HAVOC” - How hard we play, Attacking style, Violence, playing together as One, Compete level.
The Schedule at a Glance
Right from the jump, we have put the Gophers on upset alert. Buffalo comes to town on August 28th and Minnesota has a habit of playing close season openers. They’ll likely win their next three, including the conference opener against Rutgers, before playing at Ohio State, home against Nebraska, and at Iowa in three of their next four. They also draw Oregon on the road, while they’ll host Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan’s Axe.
Over/Under Projection - 6.5
We’re on the Gophers’ bandwagon this year, so give us the over. Even if Buffalo pulls off a statement, (and we’re not necessarily saying they will, calm down friends!) I like the Gophers to reel off another steady 8 win season. The talent is there on the defensive side, the key will just be putting it all together. With how Fleck is recruiting, Minnesota is a program to continue buying stock in, I promise you.
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2024 in Review
There was joy in the streets of Lincoln when the Huskers clung like wet rain jackets to the patrons to a soggy 20-15 win over Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl. It was the first winning season for Nebraska in NINE years. Freshman sensation Dylan Raiola threw for 11 TDs and 13 INTs over the course of the season, but looked much better once Dana Holgorsen took over the offense nine games in. The Huskers felt like they were dead in the water after losing four straight games in the middle of the season, but the offensive resurgence led them to 44-points in the win over Wisconsin, sending the Huskers to a bowl game and ending a decade long wait for the fans.
Key Storylines
Compound the wins. Admittedly, we fell victim to the Nebraska playoff hype last year…our bad. I don’t think any of us are that high on the Huskers this season, but Matt Rhule’s plan does appear to be coming together. He has a veteran QB he trusts, super athletes out wide, and a very talented offensive line. He will have to break in a new (to the position, not the program) coordinator and eight starters on defense, but it’s possible that this version of the defense might have a higher ceiling.
The offense needs to be more efficient. Raiola brought a lot of sizzle and some highlight moments to Lincoln, but the offense objectively needs to take better care of the football and find the end zone more. Nebraska finished with the 103rd scoring offense (23.5 ppg) last year, but a good deal of that struggle was under former-OC Marcus Satterfield. A full season of Holgorsen promises to be much more explosive and effective. Emmett Johnson is back at RB, but the headliners are transfer WRs Dane Key (Kentucky) and Nyziah Hunter (Cal). Raiola took some terrible sacks last year, but those should be less common with three returning starters and elite transfers Rocco Spindler (Notre Dame) and Elijah Pritchett (Alabama).
Can John Butler supercharge the defense? Losing Tony White and DL coach Terrance Knighton to Florida State stung, no question about it. But Rhule quickly elevated John Butler from within the program to take over. His preferred method? Attack. Butler spent a decade in the NFL, most recently turning the Buffalo Bills’ secondary into a terror from 2018-2023. Huskers Nation is hoping that Butler’s aggressive style will lead to more energy, more sacks, and more physicality. If the Huskers can begin matching the intensity with which Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State play…look out.
The Schedule at a Glance
Nebraska will avoid Ohio State, Oregon, Illinois, and Indiana on the schedule, but the Huskers still have a stout challenge in front of them. After presumably starting 3-0 (though I wouldn’t write off Cincinnati in the opener), they host Michigan and Michigan State. The rest of their schedule includes road trips to Minnesota and Penn State, while they host USC and Iowa in the second half.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5 wins
Getting Michigan, USC, and Iowa all at home is certainly a huge help. In order to hit the over, the Huskers would love to go 2-1 in that trifecta. I lean towards an 8-4 season for Nebraska, but before you place your hypothetical bets, remember that Michigan State, Northwestern, and UCLA are all expected to pack a bigger punch on offense. I have the Huskers dropping to both Penn State and Iowa this year, so beating the LA teams becomes hugely important.
9. Washington Huskies
2024 in Review
A 6-7 record was, perhaps, a bigger step backwards than many Huskies’ fans were hoping for as Jedd Fisch took over, but it seemingly provided a floor with which to build upon in the following years. Washington was replacing a ton of production from their national title chase under Kalen DeBoer, but the emergence of QB Demond Williams Jr was a bright spot that should have the folks in Seattle on the edge of their seat heading into ‘25. If the offense can strike a more harmonious balance between the passing attack and running game (the offensive line was terrible), the Huskies could be a team you don’t want to see on your schedule.
Key Storylines
Jonah Coleman is back as RB1. Keeping Coleman out of the portal/draft after a 1,000 yard season was a massive win for the Huskies. Coleman will be key to providing the balance that a young QB will need to feel confident in the offense. Combine Coleman’s ability with an entirely rebuilt offensive line, and it’s not hard to be optimistic that the Huskies can crack the top 100 in terms of scoring. Speaking of the offensive line, returning center Landen Hatchett gets to play next to his brother, Geirean (Oklahoma), while Carver Willis (KState) is instantly penciled in as an elite left tackle.
The passing game should continue to soar. Williams Jr put the nation on notice in the narrow Sun Bowl loss to Louisville, throwing for 374 yards and five total touchdowns. The new offensive line will help him keep the pocket clean, while a fun stable of weapons should keep the Huskies’ passing attack inside the top 40. Denzel Boston is back as WR1 after an 800+ yard, nine TD performance last year. Omari Evans (Penn State) is a new comer, while Rashid Williams and TE Decker DeGraaf (freshman All-American) both return.
The Huskies’ defense might be scary. I wrote earlier that former Purdue HC Ryan Walters is right where he belongs: running a fierce defense. His arrival as defensive coordinator will pair perfectly with a massive infusion of talent, especially in the front seven. The Huskies were dreadful at defending the run last year under Steve Belichick, finishing the season poorly (87th, 162 yards per game). To fix that, Jedd went fishing for big bodies to fill the line, and boy, did he find them. Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei (Arizona), Anterio Thompson (Michigan), and Simote Pepa (Utah) are all massive humans who instantly improve the rush defense. The Huskies added numerous transfers at the LB position, while CB Tacario Davis (Arizona) joins his former running mate Ephesians Prysock as the starting corners. Both players measure 6’4, giving Washington one of the tallest secondaries in the nation.
The Schedule at a Glance
The Huskies get both Ohio State and Oregon at home this year (bookends to the conference schedule), while they’ll go on the road to Michigan and Wisconsin. A road trip to the Palouse in Week Four is critical to starting 3-0, while the home game against Illinois (Oct 25th) might be a key turning point for both teams this year.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5 wins
When I write my previews, I start by writing down my gut reaction to the schedule before looking up the vegas line. After going through the expected improvements on both ends of the ball (but especially in the trenches), I think 8-4 is a safe outcome. If The Huskies can beat Illinois or pull off an upset of Michigan on the road, a special season could be brewing.
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
2024 in Review
The new era of the Iowa offense under Tim Lester was our biggest takeaway from last season. After being positively nonexistent in ‘23, the Hawks finished with the 72nd (progress!) ranked offense, scoring nearly 28 points per game. Kaleb Johnson was hell on wheels, leading the rushing attack to over 197 yards per game and single-handedly salting away the Nebraska game to end the year. The Hawkeyes finished 8-5, slightly disappointing considering they let the CyHawk game slip through their fingers and never felt like they were going to beat Michigan State, of all teams. With a new QB, a progressing group of pass catchers, and a defense that you can set your watch to, the 2025 season could bring a lot of excitement for the good folks in Iowa City.
Key Storylines
Iowa has an elite QB. Yes, it really is that black and white. QB Mark Gronowski won two consecutive national titles with South Dakota State at the FCS level, threw for over 10,000 yards, has 93 passing TDs, and is a great athlete. If you ask an Iowa fan who their last great QB was, you’ll get mixed answers. The constant? It’s been a minute. Iowa’s offense has regressed to more of a punch line than anything. They usually had a great ground game, but the forward pass was practically extinct for the black and gold. That all changes with Gronowski’s ability to read the defense and deliver passes on time and on target.
How will the Hawks replace Kaleb Johnson? Johnson was a pure joy to watch run the football. As reliable as they come, Kaleb is now a Pittsburgh Steeler, meaning Iowa needs a new bell cow (or two) to balance the offense. Behind a veteran offense line that returns three senior starters, the Hawks will trust Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson to carry the load. The two combined for nearly 800 yards on the ground a season ago.
How good is this version of the Iowa defense? The defense will be replacing a lot of starting production from the last two seasons, but it’s still an incredibly veteran group. In fact, nine of eleven projected starters are seniors. Safety Xavier Nwankpa will lead the secondary in his final year as a Hawkeye, while linebackers Jaden Harrell, Karson Sharar, and Jaxon Rexroth will man the middle. There are, perhaps, questions about the secondary, but new starters TJ Hall and Deshaun Lee both played late last season. Overall, Phil Parker will have to work quickly to replicate a top 20 defense they tallied last season, but this is Iowa we’re talking about. You can usually count on their defense like you count on the sun to rise in the morning.
The Schedule at a Glance
After letting the CyHawk game get away from them at home, they’ll be out for revenge in Ames in week 2. Conference play opens with road tilts in Piscataway and Camp Randall, with the home opener coming against Indiana. The meat of their schedule is challenging, but getting Penn State, Minnesota, and Oregon at home certainly helps. They finish the year with trips to USC and Nebraska, while the home finale is a revenge spot against Michigan State.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5 wins
I’m a little shocked you can get this much value here. The obvious land mines are Iowa State, Penn State, and Oregon. Outside of those three games, Iowa could certainly pull off wins against the rest of their schedule. Of course there are questions about a new-look offense and the defensive replacements, but I’m not scared of their roster like some of their conference mates. My bold prediction: Iowa wins at least nine games and upsets Oregon at home this year. The Hawks are certainly on playoff watch if that comes to fruition.
7. USC Trojans
2024 in Review
Despite the hype and accolades that Lincoln Riley brought to USC three years ago, he only has a 26-14 record to show for it. While Oregon won the B1G in their first season as a new member, USC struggled to a 6-6 record, relying on an offensive explosion in the second half of the Las Vegas Bowl to finish with a winning record. After an incredible win over LSU, the Trojans struggled to beat anyone else worth their salt. To be fair, they had five losses by a combined 19 points (before getting shelled by Notre Dame), but there was always something that cost USC the win. Riley has a treasure trove of talent on the offense once again, but will it matter? It hasn’t so far…
Key Storylines
In Maiava Lincoln trusts. The Trojans benched Miller Moss late in the year in favor of the UNLV transfer, Jayden Maiava. Maiava showed his explosive nature in the bowl game against the Aggies, giving USC fans hope that they can continue building towards the top of the conference. Maiava will have plenty of options to throw to, despite losing talent to the portal. Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon both return, while Prince Strachan (Boise State) looks to reach a higher ceiling than he showed on the blue turf.
Can USC stay healthy on defense? Injuries cost Edge Anthony Lucas and LB Eric Gentry most of the ‘24 season, but their presence is essential to D’Anton Lynn’s defense continuing to improve from 77th last year. Lynn made massive strides after the Trojans languished under the control of Alex Grinch, but you’ve got to have the Jimmy’s and Joe’s to carry out the X’s and O’s. Fortunately for Lynn, he’s got some talented J and J’s coming in. Keeshawn Silver (Kentucky) is a massive nose tackle from SEC country. DJ Harvey was sensational for San Jose State at corner, while Bishop Fitzgerald (NC State) had three INTs last season. An effective pass rush combining with elite talent in the secondary could be gold for the Trojans.
What temperature is Lincoln Riley’s seat? The expectation was that the Trojans would immediately compete for titles and playoff berths under Lincoln. The first season had immense promise, but a gutting loss to Utah in the PAC 12 Championship game was followed by a total collapse against Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. Since then, the Trojans have only regressed from a record stand point. USC wasted their chances with Caleb Williams and faltered in year one of B1G membership. If the Trojans have another year of falling below expectations, how safe will Riley actually be?
The Schedule at a Glance
USC has one of the comfiest starts to the season in the entire conference. No offense to Purdue or Michigan State (USC at home gives them the edge), but the Trojans should be 4-0 when they travel to Illinois. From there, it could get fast and furious. Road games against the Illini, Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Oregon await, while USC will host Michigan, Iowa, and UCLA.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5 wins
The line being this low feels telling to us. 7-5 was the gut reaction upon surveying their schedule, but an ever evolving defense could easily raise that ceiling. Give us the over on the chance that the Trojans pull off an upset against Illinois or Iowa.
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