We’ve described the Big XII as “Fury Road” for the last few seasons, and that appears to remain true for 2025. While the Big Ten and the SEC may have more true championship contenders, the Big XII is undoubtedly the conference that operates on the thinnest of margins. Arizona State literally went from worst to first in 2024, which has many of our listeners asking if that could happen again this season. We’ve got one particular team in mind…
Welcome to Big XII Preview Week, Part I - Sleeper Agents
Looking for our other previews? Find them below!
SEC Part I | SEC Part II | SEC Part III | B1G Part I | B1G Part II | B1G Part III | AAC Part I | AAC Part II | Sun Belt East | Sun Belt West | MWC Part I | MWC Part II | MAC Part I | MAC Part II | CUSA Part I | CUSA Part II
UCF Knights
2024 in Review
When the train fell off the tracks in Orlando for Gus Malzahn last year, it fell off quickly. The Knights started 3-0, including a thrilling win over TCU before a bye week. But a highly anticipated game against Colorado turned into a blowout early, which then triggered a five game losing streak. The collapse was only halted by a win over Arizona, but another three game losing streak ended UCF’s season at 4-8 and saw Malzahn literally quit on the team to go be the OC at Florida State. The answer in Orlando? checks notes…Bring back Scott Frost?
Key Storylines
Does Frost still have a place in modern college football? Scott Frost was undeniably a legend for what he did at Nebraska as a QB. He built on that status when he rebuilt an 0-12 UCF team and took them to an undefeated regular season in 2017. But it all fell apart for him when he left for Nebraska and proceeded to go 16-31 during a short tenure. His “Don’t leave for the wrong job” comments at Big XII Media Days aside, Frost won’t succeed by simply returning to the scene of his massive success. Frost fell behind the 8-ball in Lincoln, showing the game (on and off the field) moved too quickly for him. Now, in the age of the transfer portal and NIL, Frost will have to prove himself all over again.
The offense has to hang onto the football. UCF had an explosive offense last season, finishing 14th in the country. The achilles heel was 19 turnovers and a -8 turnover margin. The offense has to essentially start over with Tayven Jackson (Indiana) or Cam Fancher (FAU) likely leading the charge at QB. RB Jaden Nixon (WMU) was productive in Kalamazoo last season, and brings over 900 yards with him to Orlando. The WR room might be a tad thin, but transfers from Florida, Charlotte, and DII Limestone will help restack the room. There is real potential on the roster, but taking care of the football will be pivotal for Frost and OC Steve Cooper to start their rebuild.
Warning: Defense might cause high blood pressure. Unfathomably, Alex Grinch once again has a job in college football. We were left scratching our heads by the hire, but you never know, anything could happen in today’s version of college football. Grinch has some new talent to work with, but not a lot remains from a top five defense in the Big XII last year. The final results will likely bank on how quickly Grinch can fit the puzzle together. Keli Lawson (Va Tech) will step in as an immediate leader at the linebacker spot after making over 140 tackles last season. OU transfer Lewis Carter will join him, giving UCF two solid starters. The Knights added a couple of Syracuse transfers in the secondary, as well as S Phillip Dunnam from FAU. Along the line, edges Sincere Edwards (Pitt) and Aymeric Koumba (Michigan) bring high ceilings with them.
The Schedule at a Glance
UCF gets two new-look opponents in Jacksonville State and North Carolina in their first three games. Road trips to Kansas State, Cincinnati, Baylor, Texas Tech, and BYU await, while the home slate includes Kansas, WVU, and Houston.
Over/Under Projection - 5.5
We’re going to take the under on the 5.5, which is honestly more of a commentary on the coaching staff than the players. While QB1 questions abound, we actually like some of the pieces brought in during the offseason. But, if you’re a long time listener of the show, you know one of our first principles is “never trust Alex Grinch”. Prove us wrong Knights, we’ll see you in 2026.
Houston Cougars
2024 in Review
Willie Fritz’s first year in H-Town went as well as many expected. The 4-8 season fell mostly on the shoulders of an anemic offense that simply couldn’t score, averaging just 14 points per game (132nd out of 134). A revolving door at QB for much of the season delayed the stability that Houston likely has in 2025, but fans of Fritz know that his rebuilds yield fruit. The defense finished 25th in the country and top 40 in scoring prevention, so getting some of those returners back feels big. If you’re looking for a program to buy stock in, Houston could be your darling.
Key Storylines
The Cougars won big in the portal. To say that Houston went out and acquired a new offense would be putting it lightly. They loaded up along the offensive line, adding pieces from Oklahoma State (LG), California (RG), and Texas Tech (RT). They plucked Conner Weigman from the portal after a tough 2024 at Texas A&M, giving Houston a true gunslinger at QB. Pass catchers Harvey Broussard III (Louisiana) and Tanner Koziol (Ball State -> Wisc) join forces with the top two WRs from ‘24 in Stephon Johnson and Mekhi Mews. Rice standout RB Dean Connors switches allegiances after leaving Rice over the offseason.
Will the defense be enough? The Cougs are replacing most of their production from last year, including star safety AJ Haulcy who bolted for LSU in the spring portal. Fritz and new DC Austin Armstrong (UF) brought Wrook Brown (Wyo) and Blake Thompson (La Tech) to try and fill the void, while Kentrell Webb and Latrell McCutchin Sr returned at safety and CB respectively. Off the edge, Brandon Mack II is the name to know. He registered three sacks a season ago from the JACK position. Linebacker might be a guessing game with the two presumed starters, Jesus Machado and Corey Platt Jr both missing a lot of time last year due to injury.
The Pride of Houston. Willie Fritz said at Big XII media days that his ties to Houston have helped build the culture in H-Town very quickly. After playing from behind the 8-ball when hired, Fritz has dedicated himself to turning the program over one brick at a time. If Houston can pair a bowl berth with wins along the recruiting trail, especially in South East Texas where Fritz has decades’ old relationships, the Cougars are going to become a force in the conference very quickly.
The Schedule at a Glance
Houston has to make their hay early on with SFA, Rice, and Colorado in their first three. After that, the schedule really ramps into a grind. Oregon State should be solid, meaning the Cougs have a challenging road trip to finish out September. They’ll host Texas Tech, Arizona, WVU, and TCU the rest of the way, while they visit Oklahoma State, ASU, UCF, and finish at Baylor.
Over/Under Projection - 6.5
Let me be the first to say that the Jimmy’s and Joe’s ranking Houston this low (yes, I’m looking at you) is offensive to my eyes. Willie Fritz will finish higher than 15th in the conference this season, mark my words. Sarcastic rant over, it’s important to know that this line has been bet up from the offseason mark of 4.5. Vegas quickly had to raise it after the fantastic portal additions that the Cougars brought in to round out the team. Getting over 6-6 feels daunting given the schedule, but a bowl game could easily be on the cards for the Cougs.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2024 in Review
We have never seen a Mike Gundy-coached team look as bad as they did in 2024. After starting 3-0, the Pokes proceeded to lose their remaining nine games, going winless in Big XII play for the first time ever. “A lot of it was on me”, said Gundy at the Big XII Media Days. He let his entire staff go, telling many of them that the failures of last season were “half on me”. As a result, the Pokes have 65 new faces on the roster, and half of them didn’t arrive on campus until June 1st. “Basically, we’re figuring out who we have on our team between now and fall camp.” said Gundy. That might be putting it mildly.
Key Storylines
And the winner of QB1 is…? We’ve got a good old fashioned quarterback controversy in Stillwater between two players who have a combined zero snaps taken for Pistol Pete. Zane Flores is a third-year sophomore who didn’t get to play last year due to a foot injury. That might have opened the door just enough for TCU transfer Hauss Hejny to get his chance. Hejny is a North Texas native who tore the state up at power house Aledo HS. He’s a true dual threat QB and our personal pick to win the job.
The rushing attack has to be markedly improved this year. Oklahoma State came in 2024 with a Heisman favorite at RB in Ollie Gordon III. Unfortunately, the passing game and offensive line were so ineffective that Gordon had nowhere to run. The rushing game finished just 114th in the country last season. Gordon is gone to the NFL, leaving new OC Doug Meachum to try and find his replacement by committee. We’ll see what kind of ceiling the backs have behind an entirely new starting five up front.
Grantham plans to field a defense by committee as well. The longtime coordinator joined Mike Gundy’s staff and plans to rotate players in and out at all levels until he finds a starting 11 he likes. One of our favorites, as your resident UTEP stan account, is Edge Kyran Duhon. As a freshman, he was one of the few bright spots on the Miner’s defense last year, showing an ability to find the football and bring down the QB (7 sacks). Akron lost one stud LB, Antavious Fish, to Sam Houston State, and they lost the other in Bryan McCoy to the Pokes. McCoy brings his 120 tackles from last season to Stillwater where he will look to anchor the defense from the MIKE. CB Jaylen Davies (UCLA) and Mordecai McDaniel (Charlotte) are two of the new pieces in the secondary that finished 131st last season.
The Schedule at a Glance
Oklahoma State travels to Eugene for the first time ever in Week Two to play the Ducks, followed by home games against Tulsa and Baylor to wrap up a crucial first month of the season. They will host Houston, Cincinnati, Kansas State, and Iowa State, while road trips are slated for Arizona, Texas Tech, Kansas, and UCF.
Over/Under Projection - 5.5
On one hand, it’s hard to bank on a team with new faces making up over half of its roster to reach a bowl game. On the other, it’s Mike Gundy. Staring a 2-2 start in the face, the Pokes then need to beat both Houston and Cincinnati at home to have any chance. If they can do that, a bowl game feels likely. Stay away from the line with any sort of currency though, you’re truly just throwing it up to chance.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2024 in Review
The Scott Satterfield era has gotten off to a bumpy start over the last two seasons, with Satterfield holding just a 8-16 record in Cincinnati. Last season, the Bearcats raced out to a 5-2 start and could have started 6-1 had they not utterly collapsed against Pitt (watch those highlights if you need something crazy today). After a 24-14 upset over Arizona State, the Jeff Sims game, Cincy lost their next five to miss bowl eligibility for the third straight season. The offense broke down and the defense just couldn’t quite hold the line…a truly frustrating finish to the ‘24 season.
Key Storylines
The Cupboards are relatively stocked for the Bearcats. Brendan Sorsby was a fantastic addition at QB last year, and (despite the second half stall) should give Cincinnati a great field general once again. The skill positions look solid with RB Evan Prior returning to replace Corey Kiner, and the likes of WRs Caleb Goodie (Colorado State) and Cyrus Allen (Texas A&M) out wide. Even Joe Royer is back at TE after an All-Big 12 selection. The offensive line is also stacked, welcoming Joe Cotton from South Dakota and Taran Tyo from Ball State into the fold. They’re led by team captain Gavin Gerhardt at center.
New starters, but familiar faces abound on defense. Seeing Dontay Coreleone, nicknamed “The Godfather”, back on the field after a medical emergency last preseason truly is good for the soul. The 325 nose tackle is joined by a few other returners and depth pieces as they try and improve on an average defensive season (85th). The linebackers are sound, returning starters Jack Dingle and Jake Golday to the lineup. In the secondary, Cincy brings back an emerging star (literally he plays STAR) in Jiquan Banks and will pair him with incoming transfers like Christian Harrison (Tenn) and Matthew McDoom (Coastal).
Finishing through the line is critical for Satterfield. It goes without saying that Scott’s job could come under threat if he isn’t able to get Cincinnati back to a bowl game this year. As we talked about with Shehan Jeyarajah in our Big XII Power Rankings episode, Cincinnati’s athletic department knows it’s either thrive or fall behind. With the resources and the appeal to stay a player in the top half of college football, the third-year head coach will feel the temperature turn up if the wins continue to elude him.
The Schedule at a Glance
The Bearcats get cooking right away against Nebraska in Kansas City. They’ll open conference play against Kansas (road) and Iowa State (home). The second half of their season looks especially difficult, with Baylor, Arizona, and BYU coming to town around road trips to Utah and TCU.
Over/Under Projection - 6.5
So much of Cincinnati’s projections depend on what you feel for teams like UCF and Oklahoma State. The Bearcats should probably win both of those games, giving them a chance to reach a bowl. Weathering trips to Utah and TCU in the final four weeks are also critical. It’s likely going to be another stressful, nail-biting season for the Bearcats, but an offense that stays consistent should really help them reach the postseason.
West Virginia Mountaineers
2024 in Review
I had the distinct pleasure of talking with some Mountaineer fans when they came to Frisco for the bowl game. Many of them were looking forward to the offseason changes that lay ahead after Neal Brown’s dismissal. Others were openly cautious given what all was likely about to change. Boy, did it ever. The Mountaineers are truly starting from ground zero after Rich Rodriguez was hired (for the second time) and FIFTY TWO transfers hit the portal. 247 also shows 52 transfers coming in, ensuring that there is an entirely fresh start in Morgantown.
Key Storylines
Find your Quarterback early. Nicco Marchiol is one of the few returners for WVU, but he just doesn’t have any consistent action through his career to help us feel anything definitive about him. Jaylen Henderson (Texas A&M) and Max Brown (Charlotte) both transferred in, while a couple of freshman signed this offseason. Rich Rod said after spring ball that he has no concerns whatsoever about the QB position, so we’ll see how it plays out.
Get ready to learn Jahiem White, buddy. White is not an unheralded name, by any stretch. The speedster had over 800 yards and 7 TDs last season. But Rich Rod loves to run the football…Jacksonville State finished 3rd in the country last season, after all. White’s work load is likely to increase in ‘25, a major win for the Mountaineers and CFB fans alike.
The defense is statistically going to improve. The Mountaineers kicked off the defensive upgrade by hiring Zac Alley away from Oklahoma, a shocking coup given how rough the defense was last season (110th). Alley’s move east signals there is a real vision and plan in place to build WVU into a contender once again. My favorite name on the defensive side is edge Jimmori Robinson, AAC player of the year for the UTSA Roadrunners in ‘24. He had nearly 11 sacks last year and will pair perfectly with a senior-laden defensive line. The secondary was upgraded as well, featuring transfer CB Michael Coates from a plucky Nevada squad.
The Schedule at a Glance
The Mountaineers have a lightning quick start the year following their warm up game against Robert Morris. They visit Peden Stadium to take on Ohio, then host Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, followed by a road trip to Kansas. WVU has long road trips to BYU, Houston, and Arizona State on the schedule, while they host Utah, TCU, Colorado, and Texas Tech in the finale.
Over/Under Projection - 5.5
Rich Rod will get the Mountaineers fun and relevant again, but with so many parts in and out, we won’t be touching this line. 4-5 wins feels about right for year one of such a big rebuild.
Kansas Jayhawks
2024 in Review
The wheels fell off early for the Jayhawks last season. While they did their absolute best to ruin seasons down the stretch, they fell just shy of bowl eligibility. The main problem was that the offense was herky-jerky out of the gate, and Jalon Daniels struggled with turnovers (12 INTs last year). But after starting 1-5 with multiple one-score losses, the Jayhawks cooked up three straight wins over ranked conference opponents before getting crushed by Baylor in the finale. The flashes of brilliance are there, but Kansas has one last chance to scratch the ceiling that this current roster has dreamed of.
Key Storylines
How does the rushing attack look in 2025? Kansas’ all-time rushing leader, Devin Neal, is finally off to the NFL. Multi-year backup Daniel Hishaw Jr returns, while Leshon Williams (Iowa) joins as the current favorite to lead the room. The Jayhawks finished 13th in the country last season in rushing, a mark they’ll need to come close to replicating with questions and new faces in the receiver room.
Which version of Jalon Daniels suits up? We’ve seen some incredible, awe-inspiring QB play from Daniels over his career at Kansas. We’ve also seen some confounding interceptions thrown on key drives. Daniels tossed a career-high 12 INTs last season, and while momentum picked up in conference play, the season was essentially lost by then. Kansas has the potential (and the schedule) to hit 8-9 wins, but they’re going to need an all-conference performance from their gunslinger.
It’s time for another step forward from the defense. The improvement starts with three returning starters and a host of experience up along the line. Edge Dean Miller led the team in sacks (six) and is joined by six other seniors up front. The linebackers could be fun, but they’re all new. From left to right, Bangally Kamara (South Carolina), Joseph Sipp Jr (Bowling Green), and Trey Lathan (WVU) will need to gel quickly. The secondary was a liability last year and must improve on their 2024 mark of 103rd in the nation.
The Schedule at a Glance
Kansas’ grand opening of their new stadium against Fresno State kicked off our “2025 College Football Roadtrip” episode. They’ll play Missouri in the Border War in Week Three before hosting WVU and Cincy to open conference play. It’s a manageable schedule overall, but they do play (at) Tech and Kansas State in consecutive weeks. They’ll close the year at Iowa State and home against Utah.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5
Rolling the dice to say that I still believe in Lance Leipold and this Kansas offense. Taking care of the football is essential, and while Devin Neal’s production probably isn’t immediately replaced, the offense should be good enough to land eight wins. The Cincinnati game is the biggest swing on the schedule to my eye.
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