We’ve reached the dark horse stage of Big XII Preview Week. We’ve talked about the depth of the B1G and SEC, but the Big XII is unlike either of those. While the likes of TCU or Colorado might not be able to win a national championship, you will find fans espousing their chances to reach Arlington to play for a Big XII title. And they might not be wrong. The fact is that in this conference, a “worst to first” story is possible because the margins are so razor tight. Welcome to the most entertaining section of possibly any conference in the country.
Welcome to Big XII Preview, Part II: The Dark Horses
Looking for our other previews? Find them below!
Big XII Part I | SEC Part I | SEC Part II | SEC Part III | B1G Part I | B1G Part II | B1G Part III | AAC Part I | AAC Part II | Sun Belt East | Sun Belt West | MWC Part I | MWC Part II | MAC Part I | MAC Part II | CUSA Part I | CUSA Part II
TCU Horned Frogs
2024 in Review
Trey’s storyline for TCU in our 2024 previews was “Will the real Sonny Dykes please stand up?” The Horned Frogs went to the national championship in 2022, but woefully underachieved in 2023 and the defense was MIA. We pontificated that the Frogs were likely somewhere in the middle…say 8-4? Bingo. Josh Hoover balled out as QB1, but the lack of any consistent ground game really held them back in losses to UCF, Houston, and Baylor. The defense improved a good bit and finished 45th, not quite up to the Gary Patterson levels, but it’s trending that way. TCU bludgeoned the Ragin’ Cajuns in the bowl game, giving TCU fans the hope that there is a deep conference run in them this season.
Key Storylines
The Frogs are replacing a ton of pass catching production, but Hoover and Kendal Briles will figure it out. Erik McAlister returns for another year in Panther City after 700+ yards and 5 TDs, while former Vandals playmaker Jordan Dwyer (1,192 yards and 12 TDs) joins the roster this year. Who knew Dykes had a pipeline to the state of Idaho? Senior DJ Rogers is the projected starter at TE.
How does the running game improve? Briles will always have a pass-heavy offense. This is the family way, after all. But a running game, behind three returners in the trenches, is vital for TCU hitting that next gear and competing for a Big XII title. The backfield is a muddled room of mostly homegrown talent, but the addition of Kevorian Barnes (UTSA) was a welcome one. Trent Battle and Jeremy Payne are potential frontrunners to see early carries, while Lindy’s has redshirt freshman Nate Palmer pegged as their favorite to start.
Andy Avalos is a defensive genius, and he put players like Devean Deal and Namdi Obiazor in the place to succeed last year. The Frogs were 103rd in total defense in ‘23, but made the jump to 45th last year. TCU feels good about what they bring back along the defensive line as Markis Deal returns from an injury, and Wazzu transfer Ansel Din-Mbuh joins the line at defensive tackle. There are technically only two starters back in the secondary, featuring S Bud Clark, but the Frogs have plenty of experience on the backend, even if they haven’t started every game.
The Schedule at a Glance
TCU starts their season with the bizarre Labor Day game against the TMZ UNC Tar Heels and SMU (the final scheduled Battle for the Iron Skillet) within the first three weeks. A trip to Tempe opens the conference slate and a trip to Manhattan closes the first half. The second part of the year features games versus Baylor and Iowa State.
Over/Under Projection - 6.5
TCU’s schedule isn’t super forgiving, especially early. But the Frogs have the talent in place to pick off some of these early wins. SMU is replacing a ton along the lines of scrimmage, so an improved running game could help the Frogs wear down the Mustangs. They’re going to need to control the clock against teams like Kansas State and Baylor who will likely put up points in a hurry. We’ll take the over here and say TCU threatens to make a run down the back half of the season.
Colorado Buffaloes
2024 in Review
There isn’t enough room in this preview article to try and recap the Buffs 2024 season, so the cliff notes version looks like this: Travis Hunter won the Heisman, Shedeur Sanders had some really good games and got his jersey retired, the Buffs were right there in contention for a trip to Arlington until the upset-minded Jayhawks ruined that dream, and then it all ended with a huge dud as BYU blasted them in the Alamo Bowl. Still, a nine win season was extremely impressive, and while the brothers Sanders headed to the NFL with Travis Hunter, Deion decided to stay and continue coaching in Boulder.
Key Storylines
Deion will be coaching a team without his sons as the stars for the first time. That may not sound all that pivotal to some, but the reality is that it changes everything. Most of our dads were our little league or peewee football coaches, but they stopped once we either moved on to other things or got good enough to be coached by the pros. Sanders will have to truly commit to his identity as a stand-alone coach this season, something it felt like he really leaned into last season. Will he have the same fire, passion, and personality this season? We’ll see!
The Buffs are replacing a staggering amount on offense. The jokes wrote themselves during Shedeur’s career, but those were mostly thanks to off-the-field antics. On the gridiron, he was one of the best QBs in the country. Colorado now has to replace over 4,000 yards of passing and almost 40 TDs. Kaidon Salter (Liberty) and JuJu Lewis (flipped from USC) were both brought in to compete for the starting job. Salter is looking for a redemption tour after last season fell apart for his Flames and the offense couldn’t move the football. He’ll have better weapons out wide thanks to Omari Miller, Dre’lon Miller, and Joseph Williams (Tulsa), but the word around CFB circles is that he’s just holding the spot until 5-star freshman JuJu Lewis is ready to take over.
The Buffs will need to stop the run more effectively in 2025. Colorado was absolutely gashed on the ground towards the end of the year, especially in the losses to Kansas and BYU. Alabama transfer Jehiem Otis should step in and immediately help with that, as should Tavian Coleman (Texas State). Martavius French (UTSA) was one of my personal favorite additions to the LB room. Preston Hodge and DJ McKinney are back at CB this season, while Markari Vickers (OU) will help try to replace Travis Hunter.
The Schedule at a Glance
The Buffs have quite the test against CFP dark horse Georgia Tech to open the season. They should collect wins against Delaware and Wyoming, but starting conference play with Houston and BYU could be tricky. They will travel back to Ft. Worth, Utah, WVU, and Kansas State this year, while they get the Clones and both Arizona schools at home.
Over/Under Projection - 6.5
9-4 was a heck of a run last year, but I’m not in love with the idea that QB1 is actually QB2 in-waiting. Colorado was literally 133rd in rushing last year and I’m not sure that improves all that much this year. The offensive line has a lot of talent, but I’d like to see them actually gel for a complete season before I fully believe. The defense has some nice pieces, but I’m going to say 6-6 Colorado enjoys a trip to the Rate or Independence Bowl.
Utah Utes
2024 in Review
There was always that quiet voice in our subconscious warning about the questions around Cam Rising’s health. Still, we were talking about Kyle Whittingham and a gritty Utah defense…so naturally the Big XII media picked the Utes to finish first in the conference. Utah started 4-0, but lost Rising for the season in a tight win over Oklahoma State. They would never recover from that loss. A seven game losing streak doomed the Utes to suffer their first losing season since 2013, and has seemingly pushed Whittingham to the brink of retirement. With Morgan Scalley named “Coach in Waiting”, do the Utes have one more great charge in them?
Key Storylines
Utah launches Operation Lobo to save the offense. QB Devon Dampier and former offensive coordinator Jason Beck come over from New Mexico to run the Utes’ attack. Beck will call plays, while Dampier will assume QB1 duties following his First Team All-MWC honors in 2024. Dampier logged nearly 4,000 total yards last season, with over 1,100 of them coming on the ground. Behind an offensive line returning all five starters, the prospects of Dampier leading a top 30 offense are tantalizing, although they will need to find new weapons to rely on.
Utah finished with a top 30 defense…in a down year! If you were looking to fade the Utes’ defense, you probably lost your wager. Morgan Scalley has consistently architected some incredible units, and the 2025 version should be no different. The front four will need to get their feet under them early, but they will benefit from returning star Logan Fano at EDGE. The linebackers get Levani Damuni back from an injury that sidelined him all of 2024, and the secondary is full of vets. Elijah Davis and Smith Snowden are playmakers at CB, while Tao Johnson roams at the free safety spot.
Can Whittingham go out on top? Whittingham is, at the very least, close to calling it a remarkable career at Utah. In his 21st season, Kyle has totaled a record of 167-86, with a couple of conference championships and only three losing seasons. If this is Whittingham’s final year in Salt Lake City, it sure would feel good to go out after making one last run at the conference championship and a playoff berth.
The Schedule at a Glance
Utah gets a challenge right out of the gate against UCLA on the road. They will open Big XII play against the pre-season favorite Texas Tech Red Raiders, while Arizona State lurks just two games later. Fortunately, they get both teams at home and the Sun Devils following a Utah bye week. They do play the Holy War on the road and will have to visit both Baylor and Kansas in November.
Over/Under Projection - 7.5
The three road trips to BYU, Baylor, and Kansas loom large with respect to the over here. Unless of course, you’re picking Utah to upset Texas Tech or Arizona State at home. Last year was an aberration for the Utes, and we’ll pick them to win at least eight games this season.
Arizona Wildcats
2024 in Review
The Wildcats were the unfortunate victims of the dreaded one-two punch that is the coaching carousel and the transfer portal. With Jedd Fisch off to Washington, Wildcats left in droves before Brent Brennan could even get in town. The offense was one of the worst in the conference, and the defense wasn’t any better. After upending a Rising-less Utah, the Wildcats lost their next five and seven of their final eight. But Brennan feels much better about the 2025 campaign. At media days, he said not playing catch up the moment he set foot on campus gives the Wildcats a chance to be a much more cohesive team.
Key Storylines
Brennan went shopping for offense over the offseason, and we really like some of the finds. Offensive Coordinator Seth Doege (former gunslinger at Texas Tech) comes to Tucson fresh off a conference championship in the same position at Marshall. The Wildcats are going to be much faster and even more pass-centered this season. While Fifita’s life-long teammate, Tetiroa McMillan is gone to the NFL, Chris Hunter III established himself as the next go-to WR1. Kris Huston (Wazzu) and Luke Wysong (New Mexico) also are in the fold, giving Arizona one of the most fun groups of pass catchers in the country. Don’t forget about RB1, Ismail Mahdi from Texas State. Mahdi is a bowling ball who racked up thousands of all-purpose yards in San Marcos, meaning that this offense is going to be pure entertainment on a weekly basis.
Fifita needs to return to 2023 form. Noah is a pure passer and can ignite this offense in a heartbeat. But in 2024, turnovers were a major factor. After a sensational 2023, Fifita threw 12 picks total, leading to a -4 turnover margin for the Wildcats. His pass catchers should help create more separation this year, but it is worth noting that the line is almost entirely new and will be a large question mark heading into the season.
It’s a new-look defense outside of the secondary, which could be a good thing after the unit finished 108th in scoring and 105th overall. The secondary lost Tacario Davis to Washington, but returns plenty of experience thanks to Treydan Stukes who is in his sixth year on campus. Tre Smith is back after following Brennan from San Jose State last season, but transfers like Tia Savea (Texas) will be important to holding down the trenches.
The Schedule at a Glance
The Wildcats get five of their first six games within the friendly confines, traveling only to Ames in the first half of the season. However, it means that the stretch run is almost exclusively on the road. Arizona has road trips to Houston, Colorado, Cincinnati, and Arizona State that are only interrupted by home games against Kansas and Baylor.
Over/Under Projection - 5.5
To say we were surprised to see the Wildcats this high in the fan rankings was an understatement. Arizona should be much better than the team that went 4-8 last season, but defensive questions combined with a brutal finishing stretch have us thinking that not much more than a bowl game is (likely) on the table. Then again, it’s the Big XII. Brennan and company might be dancing in Arlington come December.
Iowa State Cyclones
2024 in Review
Iowa State reached a new height under Matt Campbell, winning double-digit games (11) for the first time in program history. A year removed from the sports gambling scandal that rocked college football, QB standout Rocco Becht led the Clones back to the Big XII Championship and beat Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. While Iowa State suffered setbacks against Texas Tech and Kansas last year, the Clones proved to be remarkably consistent on both sides of the ball. Campbell has certainly found the key to getting the most out of a roster that will never appear on the top-20 “Blue-Chip Ratio”. But the conference has only gotten deeper, meaning that Iowa State will need to find a new gear in order to get back to Arlington.
Key Storylines
The Clones are loaded on the offensive side of the ball. While the obvious loss of a pair of 1,000 receivers (Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins) will be felt, Iowa State hit the portal for their replacements. Chase Sowell (ECU) has a productive start to his career in Greenville, and will look to use his looming 6’4 frame to provide a physical element to the passing game. Xavier Townsend (UCF) will provide the burst, while Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle headline the tight ends. The offensive line returns four starters to block in front of a dynamic RB duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. The supporting cast around Rocco Becht (3,500+ yards, 25 TDs) is looking very strong.
We do have questions about the defensive front. The Cyclones finished just 109th in the country last year in run defense, giving up over 188 yards per game on average. Tyler Onyedim is now in College Station, so Domonique Orange will be asked to shoulder a lot of that burden from his nose tackle spot. The linebackers are deep and an extremely battle-tested group, so improvement is certainly possible given their 3-3-5 scheme, but the run prevention is likely still the biggest question about the team.
Can the winning trends continue? When the Clones last reached for the summit of the Big XII, it was 2020 and the Oklahoma Sooners prevented them from claiming the title. The Cyclones then took a step back in ‘21 and felt like they fell off a cliff in the rocky 2022 campaign. The pieces are in place for Iowa State to reach 11 wins again this season, but it will take more than paper odds to get them back to Arlington.
The Schedule at a Glance
Iowa State and Kansas State kick off the season in the most beautifully Big XII way possible – In Dublin, Ireland. The Aer Lingus Classic gives us the treat (?) of watching Farmegeddon played half a world away. Iowa looms two weeks later, but the rest of the conference slate isn’t as challenging as some of their peers. They will host BYU and Arizona State in a tricky back-to-back to close October/begin November, and the hardest road trip on their schedule is arguably TCU (the very next week).
Over/Under Projection - 7.5
I lean towards Iowa State getting out to another relatively hot start, but I am worried about the closing stretch. If the Clones can stop the run, a win over Kansas State would be huge. I predicted the Cyclone upset over Iowa last year, but this year I’m flipping it in favor of the Hawkeyes. Worst case, I’ve got the Clones going 8-4, so this feels like a comfy over to lock in.
Share this post